The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), a scientific body established by the World Meteorological Organization and the United Nations Environment Program, just released its fourth report to the world, and the message could not be clearer:
GLOBAL WARMING IS REAL, IT IS A THREAT TO HUMAN CIVILIZATION, AND WE MUST ACT NOW IF WE HAVE ANY HOPE OF STOPPING IT.
The fourth report is essentially a summary of the last three scientific reports that the panel has produced. It is based on the consensus work of hundreds of scientists and scores more of policymakers. The latter is important, as the report tends to downplay concerns and leans toward the conservative more than you’d expect. Nonetheless, the consensus language of all participants sends alarm bells ringing and recommends - and almost demands - immediate action.
The report warns of “extinction,” “massive flooding,” “destruction of wetlands,” “rise of sea levels,” “intense cyclones,” “heat waves,” and “the slashing of crop yields” because of an expected increase in temperatures of 3.9 degrees (centigrade) that will occur if we do not make drastic changes.
New York City under a 3-5 meter rise in sea-level due to global warming
It also makes it clear that global warming is measurable and is occurring. It posits the blame squarely on man-made greenhouse-gas emissions (GHG), which have grown over 70% between 1970 and 2004, as it is now likely (scientific speak for “bet the house on it”) that GHG concentrations have a direct relationship with the increase in average temperature.
Finally, the report looks into the future. What will happen if we simply continue as we are now doing, with the planned sustainable development practices? In short, an expected increase in temperature will lead to catastrophic consequences such as the ones mentioned above.
San Francisco under a 2.25 meter rise in sea level due to global warming
The IPCC still believes that there is hope, thankfully, but not for long. Some of its recommendations include a dramatic increase in renewables, efforts in the increase of sustainable practices, a global effort to move away from GHG-producing practices, and an agreement of scope similar to that of Kyoto or better. And it tackles the issue of slowing down economic development to reduce carbon emissions, noting that if it were to be necessary, the impact is negligible (between a 1% gain to a 5.5% decrease), especially when compared to the economic cost of doing nothing.
All this effort would bring, at best, an increase of 2 degrees, which the IPCC believes would have serious consequences, but not catastrophic. To do this, the world would have to cut emissions, from year 2000 levels, by at least 50% in 2050.
+ Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change AR4 Synthesis Report
People please! What are we going to do about this? Are we going to be able to stop it in time?
Of course we could, if the people sat up, took notice, and got their wah wah out, we the people can do anything. Just about the whole world mobolized to defeat Nazism in WW2 because the threat was to our civilisation. This threat is so much bigger because it is beyond the discriminatory horrors of nazism and its modern protege of islamofascism.
Climate change is a monster of indescribable proportions but we created it and we must solve it.
An analogy. If you were to stand all by yourself on the dockside and pushed against the gigantic hull of the QE11 ocean liner, it would take half the day but eventually it would begin to move and then you would find that you could push it out into the Hudson river all by yourself. But just you try and stop it once you have got it moving. You could, but you would have to push it from the other direction for half a day.
That is what global warming is like. We as a civilisation have pushed the climate into a momentum that looks and feels unstoppable, but it is not. W just have to push it as hard from the other direction.
As designers and architects we have to practice what we preach with Enviromentally Sustainable Design ( i call it ESdesign because it looks nice on the page and sound good to my ear) and we have to design and build like there is no tomorrow. And we have to make green LEED ratings systems compulsory, right now, around the world for new AND existing structures. Then we have to get to work replanting about 50 million acres of forests and…..there is a lot of work but yes, we can do it. We just have to do it